We are at the point in the 2012 baseball season where if nothing else it's fair to characterize the Phillies' chances of winning the World Series as improbable. Technically it could happen, and this site isn't the type to promote the abandonment of hope. We simply state for the record that the club is in the hole, and the reasons to believe they can still crawl out of it are dwindling as summer begins.
Chase Utley returning should provide a shot in the arm, as should Roy Halladay -- Ryan Howard on the other hand is a little less certain. Any notion he become The Big Piece the moment he step into the batter's box seems misplaced. His presence couldn't hurt either, but you are still relying on the rest of the roster to stay healthy at least, in many cases increase production as well.
I suspect none of the above registers as earth shattering to most observers. It's merely an attempt at establishing the common ground for what we all are watching unfold.
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The reactions to which have been extraordinarily diverse.
There are no shortage of people willing to declare the Phils' season over, and plenty of them are quick to play the blame game. Ruben Amaro lives squarely in the crosshairs of the public these days, as general managers often do when the teams they run disappoint. Others might accuse critics of revisionist history, but fact is everybody's job comes up for review.
Defensive fans detect the overtone in that message though, and would contend in spite of having a poor season, times have never been better for the Fightins overall. After decades filled primarily with frustration, it's difficult to interpret the whining as anything beyond being a part of a bandwagon mentality. Apparently we should be thankful we've experienced good teams at all.
So who is in the right: is it the smug cynics climbing the sinking Titanic like rats, or the self-proclaimed flag bearers of the Phillies franchise?
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In all honesty, what would you even have the organization do about this mess right now?
The season started on April 5, and this is the team the Phillies brought to the dance. Players can come back from injuries, but more could hit the disabled list just as fast. There are only two more directions for them to go that are guaranteed to impact the locker room this year.
Number one would be fire Charlie Manuel. It's not an original idea, and while Cholly is an oddball, all things considered it is hard to blame him for the position the squad is in given the circumstances. Manuel's neck will be on the line sooner or later, but since he's only the most successful manager in Phillies history, he's earned a longer leash than most.
Number two, I guess, is make trades, and there are a couple of problems with this. For one, it's hard to pull off big moves this time of year because a lot of front offices aren't sure whether they are buyers or sellers yet -- more than ever with the addition of a second wild card. Regardless, it ain't easy to measure what that accomplishes, unless it's only in the vain hopes of catapulting the Phils into contention this season.
In which case, you're not searching for a trade. What you want is a magic cure-all.
I'm not sure where the Phillies go from here, but it looks like a bumpy road to the postseason, and the path fades on the way to the World Series. My suggestion is you adjust your compasses accordingly. These Phillies may have a few tricks left up their sleeve, but nothing short of a complete reversal of fortune is going to push them over the top.
But you know what? After five consecutive NL East Championships, a parade, and a measured push for more, they deserve a slight reprieve. And as bad as things are or look, the team still has several elements working in their favor: they have talent, and they are willing to acquire more.
My advice is to everybody is take a deep breath, and accept this season is likely going nowhere. If they turn it around -- and rest assured they can -- that's amazing.
Otherwise, like it or not, the Phillies bought themselves a year to retool if need be. It's where they take us from here that should really decide some fates.