Today we welcome back James M., Founder and Executive Editor of PhuturePhillies.com. You may recall his preseason look at the top prospects in the Phils system he did for us here. Today he gives a look at the Farm just about a month into the season. Note: all stats are as of 5/04 since he filed the report over the weekend. James' words:
As we've crossed the one month mark of the minor league season, I wanted to check in here and provide you an update from the farm, highlighting which prospects are off to good starts, bad starts, unexpected starts, and just about everything in between. Before getting in to individual prospects, a few quick points. As you are probably aware, the smaller the sample size of games, the lower the reliability of the data. For starting pitchers, they've made 5 or so starts, and for batters, they've logged 70-80 PA on average. Baseball statistics for both pitchers and hitters do not become statistically significant for a little while longer, so we may be seeing positive (or negative) developments, or we may just be seeing statistical noise. It is fun to check on guys on a daily basis and see how they are performing, but it is important to keep the size of the sample in mind and wait until we have more data (at least a half season's worth) before we start making definitive conclusions. With that out of the way, lets get started.
AAA Lehigh Valley:
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The Good: Austin Hyatt, RHP, (pictured above) remains the Phillies top close-to-big-league-ready starting pitching prospect, and he's off to a fairly decent start. He hasn't struck out as many guys as you'd like to see, and he is dealing with some control issues, but he's allowed only 2 HR in 33 innings, and the long ball was something he had problems with last year. While he lacks overwhelming stuff, he's performed at every level and should remain at the top of the SP depth chart if he continues to make adjustments. Jake Diekman, LHP, was a name I mentioned in my first write-up, and he's pitched exceptionally well in the bullpen, posting a 0.79 ERA and a 20/3 K to BB rate in 12.1 IP. Diekman's big concern has always been his ability to throw strikes, and it appears he's turned the corner. He should see time in the Phillies bullpen this summer.
The Bad: It's been a rough start to 2012 for Domonic Brown, who is hitting just .247/.292/.337 in 89 AB. The Phillies' biggest concern with Brown has been his defense, and he's already committed 4 errors in LF. Recently he came down with a mild hamstring strain, but it is not expected to cause major issues. At some point, you start to wonder if his struggles are mental. He's still young, he still has time, but it is a worrisome start. Phillippe Aumont, RHP, had a very nice 2011, posting excellent numbers at AA and holding his own during his brief AAA stint. His command and control have abandoned him in the early going, as he's posted a 6.00 in just 9 IP, walking 12 and striking out 15. In the past, Aumont has struggled to repeat his delivery, and it seems it is only consistency holding him back. He should be fine.
Keep an eye on: BJ Rosenberg, RHP. A 13th round pick in 2008, Rosenberg spent much of his college career battling injuries, and has dealt with similar problems since being drafted, but he posted decent numbers last year at Reading, pitching 103 innings and remaining healthy. This year, shifted to the bullpen, he's off to a very nice start. He allowed just 1 ER in 8 innings at Reading before being promoted to Lehigh Valley. He has a solid fastball and fringy secondary offerings and could profile as a nice 7th inning reliever if he can remain healthy and tighten up his breaking ball. With Joe Savery and Michael Schwimer in the Phillies bullpen, he figures to pitch at the back of the Iron Pigs pen for a while.
AA Reading:
News
The Good: Cesar Hernandez, 2B, (pictured right) was aggressively jumped from short-season Williamsport to Clearwater last year, and he was pushed again to Reading this year and is responding well, posting a .323/.356/.448 line in 96 AB. Hernandez lacks secondary skills (drawing walks, hitting for power) but has a line drive swing and has a knack for making solid contact. Because he is on the 40 man roster it is imperative that he continues to make positive strides, and the early results are Reading are promising. Tyson Gillies, OF, the player I was most excited about when the Cliff Lee trade went down more than 2 years ago, has finally gotten himself healthy and is shaking off the rust. After missing most of the last 2 seasons, Gillies is hitting .278/.343/.412 in 97 AB. He hasn't fully gotten back in to the running game, stealing just 4 bags in 5 attempts, but when he's 100% he has the ability to steal 30-40 bases per year. His defense in CF is solid, and if he can remain healthy he will be a possibility for the big league team at some point next season. Trevor May, RHP, is the Phillies best prospect and has exceeded my expectations in his first taste of AA, posting a 2.40 ERA in 30 IP, with 33 K and 8 BB. Control has always been May's biggest issue, but so far the results are very positive. While the urge might be there to rush him, he's right on track and should stay at Reading for most, if not all of the season.
The Bad: While it's not necessarily bad, catcher Sebastian Valle's aggressive approach is limiting his offensive production thus far, as he's hit just .260/.301/.338 in 77 AB. Valle has very strong wrists and is able to generate great bat speed which should lead to above average power, but his swing at anything that moves approach at the plate often leads to weak contact on balls out of the zone. He is young (doesn't turn 22 till July) so it isn't a major concern, but you do want to see adjustments. Jon Pettibone, RHP, had a breakout season last year in Clearwater, showing increased velocity and an improving strikeout rate to go with excellent command and control. Its been rough sledding so far at Reading, as he's struck out just 20 and walked 13 in 32 IP. A few days older than Sebastian Valle, he too is very young and has plenty of time to make adjustments.
Keep an eye on: RHP David Buchanan, an under the radar 7th round pick in 2010, had
a decent debut last year, splitting time between Lakewood and Clearwater. The Phillies chose to be aggressive and send him to Reading this year instead of a return trip to Clearwater, and so far the results have been solid. He currently has a 2.90 ERA in 29 IP, with 22 K and 8 BB while also generating more groundballs than flyballs. Lefties are giving him some trouble (.286 v .194 against RHB) but he has elevated his game and may end up a solid #5 starter or middle reliever. You'll normally always take that in the 7th round.
A+ Clearwater:
The Good: Cody Asche, 3B, (pictured right) had a rough debut last year at Williamsport after being taken in the 4th round, but he's put things together this year after skipping over Lakewood, posting a .322/.362/.414 line in the pitcher friendly Florida State League. Asche figures to be more of a doubles hitter in the pros, but had an excellent college career and you may be able to attribute his poor 2011 debut to fatigue and adjustment. The Phillies currently lack many options at 3B, and Asche is moving to the top of that very short list. Adam Morgan and Austin Wright, a pair of lefties taken in the 2011 draft, are both off to solid starts. Morgan, a 3rd rounder, has a 3.50 ERA and 41/10 K to BB ratio in 36 IP while Wright, an 8th rounder, has been even better, tossing up a 2.40 ERA in 30 IP with 37 K and 12 BB. It was encouraging that both guys, college draftees, were challenged to a tougher assignment at Clearwater, and the early results are excellent.
The Bad: Cameron Rupp, C looked like the clear cut number two on the Phillies minor league catching prospect depth chart, but he's posted an uninspiring .254/.324/.358 line at Clearwater and is older than your typical "prospect" in the league. His calling card in college was defense, but he's thrown out just 21% of basestealers this season. Brody Colvin, who opened plenty of eyes with his performance in 2010 at Lakewood, struggled last year at Clearwater and continues to be a bit of a mystery. His numbers aren't bad, but they also are not what you'd expect for a guy who throws in the low-mid 90s with a hard breaking ball repeating High A ball. Consistency seems to be the key here, and if he can begin to better repeat his delivery he could jump back on the fast track. LHP Jesse Biddle got off to a very slow start last year at Lakewood is off to a similarly slow start at Clearwater, but he should be just fine.
Keep an eye on: Lisalverto Bonilla, RHP. Bonilla, who everyone thought was named "Lisalberto" last season, has pitched in relief this year early on, but this is likely just to manage his innings, as he threw a career high 106 innings last year. Bonilla has shown solid stuff, striking out 18 with just 4 BB in 13.1 IP while also generating lots of groundballs. I expect the Phillies will move him back to the rotation at some point this year, but for now he's working in the back of the bullpen, and he has a 3 pitch mix which would allow him to move quickly as a reliever if the Phillies determine that is his ultimate role.
A Lakewood:
The Good: Brian Pointer, OF, is a guy I've been fond of since he was drafted and signed for an overslot bonus as a 28th round pick in 2010. After taking things slow and playing in the rookie level Gulf Coast League last year, the Phillies jumped Pointer over Williamsport and straight to Lakewood, and so far the results have been outstanding. He's not overly physical (6'0, 190 lbs) but he's a good athlete with a smooth swing and he can play all 3 OF positions. So far, he's hit an impressive .264/.355/.516 in 91 AB with 11 XBH (5 HR) and 5 SB while also drawing 13 walks. While he doesn't figure to be a pure power hitter or a pure speedster, he looks like a well rounded corner OF with plenty of doubles power, maybe 15-20 HR per year and 15-20 SB. Not bad for a 28th round pick. LHP Ethan Stewart, a 47th round pick in 2010 out of New Mexico Junior College, also took things slow spending most of last year in the GCL, but he impressed scouts with a low 90s fastball and a potentially above average breaking ball. He's pitched well so far, posting a 2.19 ERA in 24.2 IP, striking out 22 but also walking 15. He's still learning to harness his stuff, but hitters are batting only .202 against him, and if he can improve his control, he has mid-back end starter potential.
The Bad: Because of free agent signings, OF Kelly Dugan was the Phillies first draft pick in 2009, and so far things haven't quite worked out. Dugan missed a large chunk of 2010 and then spent 2011 in short season ball. In his 4th pro season, he's still at Lakewood and hitting just .245/.344/.396 in 53 AB. The Phillies were probably expecting more from Dugan, who now looks like a longshot to regain much, if any, of his pre-draft prospect status. LHP Ervis Manzanillo generated a lot of scouting buzz last year, running his fastball in to the mid 90s and flashing plus secondary stuff, but it appears to have just been flashes, as he's logged a 6.00 ERA in 21 IP, striking out 14 and walking 10 with opposing batters hitting .337 against him.
Keep an eye on: The Phillies gave 7th round RHP Kenny Giles an overslot bonus last year due to his massive arm strength, as he possesses a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and can touch 98/99 mph in short stints. He posted ridiculous numbers during his Junior College season last year and has mid-rotation or closer upside if he can harness his stuff. He's been a mix of good and bad this season, as the Phillies started him in relief and then recently gave him a start. Managing his innings is probably a priority as he gets acclimated to pro ball, but he has the tools to be a special arm if he figures things out.
Until next time....