Nov 12, 2013, 2:30 PM EDT
Sure, Nick Foles has made some history. Last week tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in a game, was one of only three guys even to do it without an interception, and was the only one to do it with a perfect quarterback rating. On Sunday became one of only three passers to start a season with 16 or more touchdowns and no interceptions, one being Peyton Manning, the other being a guy from 1960. Oh, and he posted the highest single-game quarterback rating at Lambeau Field. Ever.
But while it’s good and fun to debate whether Foles should be the starter for the rest of the season and projects as a franchise guy, or merely finds himself at the middle of a fun and fortunate convergence of events, with the Eagles 27-13 win over the Packers this Sunday, the conversation has shifted, been put on hold.
Now, it’s whether the Eagles can make the playoffs, and what it means for Foles if he leads them there.
First, on the Birds’ road to January.
At 5-5, the Eagles sit a half-game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East, thanks to a tiebreaker coming in the form of that time Foles played less than good. Their chance for a season series split, and at closing the one-game difference between their in-division records, comes in Week 17, at Dallas.
Until then, the Eagles have a pretty manageable schedule. Their opponents — Washington, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas — have a combined 26-29 mark. Only two division leaders, though one is the Cowboys. Only one at two games over .500. (Lions.) Toughest defense they’ll face (Cardinals, coincidentally led by… Todd Bowles), comes after Philly’s bye, in Week 14. Only one hour-plus time zone change, at 2-7 Minnesota. Four of six at home, and the Linc Stink has to subside sometime, right? (Right?)
Dallas, though, has it even easier. Combined opponents’ record for the rest of the way: 24-31. Three games against teams at three games under .500. None against teams at two over. Chicago, in Week 14, may be without Jay Cutler. Samesies for Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, their next opponent. What may be the de facto NFC East championship game, the regular season finale against the Eagles, is in the Cowboys’ house.
Dallas is the current Vegas leader to win the division, at an even money line. The Eagles are +150.
As for a wild card berth: read today’s MMQB. Probs not gonna happen. As for the Giants and Washingtonians: I may be crazy to go here with the Eagles. Not crazy enough to go there with them.
Of course, the focus will eventually double back to Foles’ long-term prospects, and rightfully so. Finding a franchise quarterback isn’t just Jeffrey Lurie’s No. 1 priority. It’s just kind of what you do in the league.
If he doesn’t win, the argument against Foles being cemented as “the guy” moving forward through the draft and into training camp next year will make itself. But what happens if he does win? Then what?
Here’s a list of guys who’ve won at least seven games in a season in any of their first two NFL seasons dating back to 1984, Dan Marino’s first year. Why seven? Two reasons. One, it’s probably going to take seven Foles wins to get the Eagles into the playoffs safely. He has three already. (Remember, he didn’t start in Week 5 in New York.) Two, lowering the bar to seven accounts for guys taking over mid-season, like Foles.
|33||Robert Griffin III||2012||22||WAS||NFL||15||9||6||0|
Lot to like, the cases in point being, Marino, Brady, Peyton, Brees, Luck, Wilson, RG3, Roethlisberger, Favre, Aikman. Lot of yuck, too, such as Tomczak, Tebow, Kanell, Trent Edwards, Aaron Brooks, Kyle Boller, Shaun King, Ken O’Brien, Dieter Brock and a whole mess of other guys I have to use two names to reference.
Point being, the same point I made to counter people ready to anoint Foles on the basis of a couple of NFL records alone: end of the day, elevating a guy to “franchise QB” status isn’t about stats, records or superlatives. It comes down to evaluating his performance on the field, in terms of abilities, and projecting how that performance should translate in the future.
Things that will be fun to debate on sports talk radio for, well, ever.
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