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Time to put Foles, ‘Franchise QB’ convo on hold… for now

Nov 12, 2013, 2:30 PM EDT

foles-spike

Sure, Nick Foles has made some history. Last week tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes in a game, was one of only three guys even to do it without an interception, and was the only one to do it with a perfect quarterback rating. On Sunday became one of only three passers to start a season with 16 or more touchdowns and no interceptions, one being Peyton Manning, the other being a guy from 1960. Oh, and he posted the highest single-game quarterback rating at Lambeau Field. Ever.

But while it’s good and fun to debate whether Foles should be the starter for the rest of the season and projects as a franchise guy, or merely finds himself at the middle of a fun and fortunate convergence of events, with the Eagles 27-13 win over the Packers this Sunday, the conversation has shifted, been put on hold.

Now, it’s whether the Eagles can make the playoffs, and what it means for Foles if he leads them there.

First, on the Birds’ road to January.

At 5-5, the Eagles sit a half-game behind the Cowboys in the NFC East, thanks to a tiebreaker coming in the form of that time Foles played less than good. Their chance for a season series split, and at closing the one-game difference between their in-division records, comes in Week 17, at Dallas.

Until then, the Eagles have a pretty manageable schedule. Their opponents — Washington, Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Dallas — have a combined 26-29 mark. Only two division leaders, though one is the Cowboys. Only one at two games over .500. (Lions.) Toughest defense they’ll face (Cardinals, coincidentally led by… Todd Bowles), comes after Philly’s bye, in Week 14. Only one hour-plus time zone change, at 2-7 Minnesota. Four of six at home, and the Linc Stink has to subside sometime, right? (Right?)

Dallas, though, has it even easier. Combined opponents’ record for the rest of the way: 24-31. Three games against teams at three games under .500. None against teams at two over. Chicago, in Week 14, may be without Jay Cutler. Samesies for Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay, their next opponent. What may be the de facto NFC East championship game, the regular season finale against the Eagles, is in the Cowboys’ house.

Dallas is the current Vegas leader to win the division, at an even money line. The Eagles are +150.

As for a wild card berth: read today’s MMQB. Probs not gonna happen. As for the Giants and Washingtonians: I may be crazy to go here with the Eagles. Not crazy enough to go there with them.

Of course, the focus will eventually double back to Foles’ long-term prospects, and rightfully so. Finding a franchise quarterback isn’t just Jeffrey Lurie’s No. 1 priority. It’s just kind of what you do in the league.

If he doesn’t win, the argument against Foles being cemented as “the guy” moving forward through the draft and into training camp next year will make itself. But what happens if he does win? Then what?

Here’s a list of guys who’ve won at least seven games in a season in any of their first two NFL seasons dating back to 1984, Dan Marino’s first year. Why seven? Two reasons. One, it’s probably going to take seven Foles wins to get the Eagles into the playoffs safely. He has three already. (Remember, he didn’t start in Week 5 in New York.) Two, lowering the bar to seven accounts for guys taking over mid-season, like Foles.

Rk Player Year Age Tm Lg GS W L T
1 Dan Marino* 1984 23 MIA NFL 16 14 2 0
2 Peyton Manning 1999 23 IND NFL 16 13 3 0
3 Ben Roethlisberger 2004 22 PIT NFL 13 13 0 0
4 Kurt Warner 1999 28 STL NFL 16 13 3 0
5 Marc Bulger 2003 26 STL NFL 15 12 3 0
6 John Elway* 1984 24 DEN NFL 14 12 2 0
7 Bernie Kosar 1986 23 CLE NFL 16 12 4 0
8 Jay Schroeder 1986 25 WAS NFL 16 12 4 0
9 Tom Brady 2001 24 NWE NFL 14 11 3 0
10 Dieter Brock 1985 34 RAM NFL 15 11 4 0
11 Daunte Culpepper 2000 23 MIN NFL 16 11 5 0
12 Joe Flacco 2008 23 BAL NFL 16 11 5 0
13 Andrew Luck 2012 23 IND NFL 16 11 5 0
14 Eli Manning 2005 24 NYG NFL 16 11 5 0
15 Donovan McNabb 2000 24 PHI NFL 16 11 5 0
16 Ken O’Brien 1985 25 NYJ NFL 16 11 5 0
17 Carson Palmer 2005 26 CIN NFL 16 11 5 0
18 Matt Ryan 2008 23 ATL NFL 16 11 5 0
19 Mark Sanchez 2010 24 NYJ NFL 16 11 5 0
20 Russell Wilson 2012 24 SEA NFL 16 11 5 0
21 Derek Anderson 2007 24 CLE NFL 15 10 5 0
22 Drew Bledsoe 1994 22 NWE NFL 16 10 6 0
23 Andy Dalton 2012 25 CIN NFL 16 10 6 0
24 Josh Freeman 2010 22 TAM NFL 16 10 6 0
25 Shaun King 2000 23 TAM NFL 16 10 6 0
26 Kyle Orton 2005 23 CHI NFL 15 10 5 0
27 Christian Ponder 2012 24 MIN NFL 16 10 6 0
28 Kyle Boller 2004 23 BAL NFL 16 9 7 0
29 Chris Chandler 1988 23 IND NFL 13 9 4 0
30 Kerry Collins 1996 24 CAR NFL 12 9 3 0
31 Andy Dalton 2011 24 CIN NFL 16 9 7 0
32 Joe Flacco 2009 24 BAL NFL 16 9 7 0
33 Robert Griffin III 2012 22 WAS NFL 15 9 6 0
34 Neil O’Donnell 1992 26 PIT NFL 12 9 3 0
35 Jake Plummer 1998 24 ARI NFL 16 9 7 0
36 Ben Roethlisberger 2005 23 PIT NFL 12 9 3 0
37 Matt Ryan 2009 24 ATL NFL 14 9 5 0
38 Mark Rypien 1989 27 WAS NFL 14 9 5 0
39 Russell Wilson 2013 25 SEA NFL 10 9 1 0
40 Vince Young 2007 24 TEN NFL 15 9 6 0
41 Drew Brees 2002 23 SDG NFL 16 8 8 0
42 Brett Favre 1992 23 GNB NFL 13 8 5 0
43 Tarvaris Jackson 2007 24 MIN NFL 12 8 4 0
44 Byron Leftwich 2004 24 JAX NFL 14 8 6 0
45 Mark Sanchez 2009 23 NYJ NFL 15 8 7 0
46 Michael Vick 2002 22 ATL NFL 15 8 6 1
47 Vince Young 2006 23 TEN NFL 13 8 5 0
48 Troy Aikman* 1990 24 DAL NFL 15 7 8 0
49 Sam Bradford 2010 23 STL NFL 16 7 9 0
50 Aaron Brooks 2001 25 NOR NFL 16 7 9 0
51 Kerry Collins 1995 23 CAR NFL 13 7 6 0
52 Jay Cutler 2007 24 DEN NFL 16 7 9 0
53 Trent Dilfer 1995 23 TAM NFL 16 7 9 0
54 Tony Eason 1984 25 NWE NFL 13 7 6 0
55 Trent Edwards 2008 25 BUF NFL 14 7 7 0
56 Boomer Esiason 1985 24 CIN NFL 14 7 7 0
57 Chad Henne 2009 24 MIA NFL 13 7 6 0
58 Danny Kanell 1997 24 NYG NFL 10 7 2 1
59 Cam Newton 2012 23 CAR NFL 16 7 9 0
60 Alex Smith 2006 22 SFO NFL 16 7 9 0
61 Ryan Tannehill 2012 24 MIA NFL 16 7 9 0
62 Tim Tebow 2011 24 DEN NFL 11 7 4 0
63 Mike Tomczak 1986 24 CHI NFL 7 7 0 0

Lot to like, the cases in point being, Marino, Brady, Peyton, Brees, Luck, Wilson, RG3, Roethlisberger, Favre, Aikman. Lot of yuck, too, such as Tomczak, Tebow, Kanell, Trent Edwards, Aaron Brooks, Kyle Boller, Shaun King, Ken O’Brien, Dieter Brock and a whole mess of other guys I have to use two names to reference.

Point being, the same point I made to counter people ready to anoint Foles on the basis of a couple of NFL records alone: end of the day, elevating a guy to “franchise QB” status isn’t about stats, records or superlatives. It comes down to evaluating his performance on the field, in terms of abilities, and projecting how that performance should translate in the future.

Things that will be fun to debate on sports talk radio for, well, ever.

Follow Matt on Twitter: @MKH973 Catch him every Saturday from 12-2 on 97.3 ESPN-FM. 

  1. Hiccup - Nov 12, 2013 at 2:47 PM

    What is the hurry in naming a franchise quarterback ; because it’s what we like to do or is it to fill copy. It’s not about Foles nor is it about Vic, it’s about the Eagles and right now they are riding the wave called momentum that will hopefully lead them to the win in Dallas.
    Who will start, can’t say can we? Chip doesn’t know but what happens when Vic is able to return will depend on….
    Hell I don’t know? Does Chip know? Do you?

    Reply
  2. 2sentz - Nov 12, 2013 at 3:10 PM

    Foles also holds highest-ever two-game QB rating, could make it three this Sun.

    Reply
  3. TJO - Nov 13, 2013 at 4:45 PM

    So what if Foles plays well ( completes 60%+ of passes, 200-300yrds, 2-3 TD’s/game with minimal turnovers) but the team misses the playoffs by 1 game, Foles is discarded for the best available QB in the draft, or worse a 30+yrd old veteran? How does a guy from college ( that will be picked in the later half of the 1st round or later) trump a young guy who has shown he can play well enough to win at the NFL level?

    I am not saying Foles will be a HOF’er or even a steady starter on a non playoff contender, but I think he atleast deserves more opportunity to prove himself and making the playoffs shouldn’t be the main driver of that analysis. Remember, it was just a couple months ago most were predicting this team to win between 5-7 games this season and that was with a 12 yr veteran that fit the “Kelly QB mold”.

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