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What Are the Chances of Lidge and Oswalt Returning?

Oct 25, 2011, 2:57 PM EDT

By now you've surely read about the Phillies deciding to pass on the options on Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt. This was expected. But what are the chances either player pitches for the Phillies next season on a less lucrative contract?

By now you’ve surely read about the Phillies deciding to pass on the options on Brad Lidge and Roy Oswalt. This was expected. But what are the chances either player pitches for the Phillies next season on less lucrative contracts?

Corey Seidman over at CSN put the probability of Lidge coming back at about 85% and pegs Oswalt’s chances of pitching for the Phils next year at 50%. Both are reasonable guesses, but I’d say are a little high in favor of them both returning.

Jim Salisbury who spoke with Lidge’ agent says they’ve already discussed the option of the former closer coming back with the team and being okay about a different role.

There was plenty speculation during the season, particularly the points during which Lil Roy was on the DL with back issues, that Oswalt would opt to retire after the 2011 season. After pitching fairly well down the stretch and saying he felt better in the final weeks than he had since spring training, Oswalt made it clear he wanted to keep his career going for at least another season or two.

Salisbury says Oswalt’s health is a major factor in the Phillies decision bringing back Oswalt and put the chances of him returning to the Phils even lower, at about 30%, with a potential $8-10 million payday ahead.

As most of the Phillies decisions this offseason will come down to, a lot of these things will be dictated by what Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Madson end up doing. Only so much money to go around…