When you look at the stats leading up to a ballgame, you usually have a choice between an array of numbers that predict the outcome you're hoping for, perhaps just as many that contradict each other, and then some nonsensical figures that stack the cards against your team. Guess which ones we're going to focus on tonight? How about a healthy portion of the happy stats, then a skewing of the seemingly negative trends to make them fit our argument. Sound like a plan?
First, as Zo pointed out earlier, the Phils are mashing and walking at will with the bases loaded this season, led by Ryan Howard, who hit his second grand slam of the season last night with his parents watching. St. Louis has been kind to Howard over his career, and you can bet your cheese he's intent on starting strong this season in the hopes of being an All-Star in his hometown come July. Big man is a career .383 hitter at Busch, including seven homers and 28 RBI in 16 games. Clearly, this is a trend that will continue.
However, in seven ABs against Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright, Howard has yet to go yard, and he has just one 'BI. But his .286 average against AdWain (however small the sample size, you nitpicker) combined with his identical .286 slugging percentage shows a clear instance in which statistical correction is likely, in this case raising his slugging percentage by several hundred points to be commensurate with the numbers against other Cards' starters in proportion to his batting average. What?! That is TOO how statistical correction works! And never mind that his OBP is slightly higher against Wainwright than others. That's Wainwright's fault, and regression is unlikely with Captain Walksalot on the hill.
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Speeeaaaking of Wainwright... How about his wonky numbers so far? 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA? Who is this guy, Josh Johnson? NO. Because unlike Johnson (1.05), Wainright is giving up almost 1.6 charged baserunners an inning! Corrrrrectionnnnnnnnn! I suppose there is the outside chance that Wainright's WHIP regresses to the 1.18 mark he set in a paltry 20 starts last season, but I say the ERA trends up to meet it somewhere in the middle.
Oh, and Wainright can safely be dropped in all fantasy formats, particularly CBS standard 10-team 5X5 roto in the Philly area. Immediately. Too many walks!
Believe me, there are countless other stats that show why the Phils will win this one tonight. But I'm a busy man, as I imagine you are, so this is all you get and likely all you need.