How many times over the last few seasons have you seen a Phillies hitter get ahead in the count, gear up for a fastball, and then swing over an offspeed pitch? The phrase "you can see his front-side collapse" has become all too familiar during Phillies broadcasts.
It just feels like the Phillies see fewer fastballs than they used to, right? Well, as Jayson Stark points out there's a good reason it feels that way. Stark had the number crunchers over at ESPN analyze the number of fastballs Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Howard now see in "fastball counts" (defined as "...the first pitch of each at-bat and pitches on which they were ahead in the count").
The results were pretty amazing.
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From the article...
"Rollins: As recently as 2008, he was seeing fastballs on 82 percent ofthose pitches. But by 2009, that percentage had fallen to 73.1. And bylast year, it was down to 68.1. That's a staggering difference of nearly14 percent in just two years."
"Utley: Saw 74.5 percent fastballs in those spots in 2009 (actually upfrom 2008). But he took a significant dip last year, back to 70.8percent. One scout's explanation is that in 2009, after hip surgery,Utley "wasn't catching up to the fastball." So he was fed more hardstuff as that season went on, then went back to a heavier off-speed dietlast year."
"Victorino: Had the biggest decrease in the group last year in those fastball counts -- from 76.2 percent to 69.2."
"Howard: Hasn't gotten many fastballs to hit in any situation since his first year in the big leagues.But he's seeing less and less heat in what should be fastball counts,sliding from 53.9 percent in '08 to 52.7 percent in '09 to 52.6 lastyear."
If the numbers and statistical analysis aren't your thing then check out Stark's separate blog post where he passes along the take of a National League scout on the Phils four lineup mainstays (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, and Howard) and how the loss of Jayson Werth will impact the offense.
Now, as Stark points out none of this is news to anyone with the Phillies. The front office, Charlie, and the players all know what opposing teams are doing to them. It's up to them to make the necessary adjustments.
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AP Photo / Eric Gay